Three Sides, Three Errors
How the Iran War Went Wrong

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 4, 2026  •  Australian

Each of the three central actors in the current conflict made a central mistake about its enemy. U.S. and Israeli leaders misunderstood key developments taking place in early January, while the Islamic Republic of Iran misjudged its neighbors.

These errors shaped the course of the war and will likely influence its outcome.

Going to war requires a government to have war goals, however murky and changeable. President Donald Trump wants a defanged Iran that cannot threaten U.S. interests. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants regime change. Iran's leaders want to remain in power and stay true to their foundational principles of anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism.

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How Will the Iran War End?
The seven hurdles to an allied victory

by Daniel Pipes  •  March 1, 2026  •  Australian

War is unpredictable but one thing is certain about the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran: Donald Trump will declare victory.

He will do so even if the fighting leaves the Iranian regime in place, more embittered and aggressive than ever, even if it leaves many Iranians dead with nothing accomplished, even if it leaves Israel more vulnerable, even if it diminishes his party's electoral prospects, even if it delegitimates the future assertion of preemptive American force. He will do so because, by definition, he always wins.

But for those of us who are not Donald Trump, what lies ahead? Who will win – indeed, what does winning even mean?

For leaders of the 47-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran, mere survival amounts to victory. Once the U.S. president and the Israeli prime minister overtly called on Iranians to overthrow their tyrants, just withstanding an aerial assault and an insurrection by its own population allows the regime – even with Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i assassinated – plausibly to claim that outlasting all its enemies amounts to success. It also buys them future immunity from external attempts to impose regime change.

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Israel Now Endangers Diaspora Jewry
And What To Do About That

by Daniel Pipes  •  October 3, 2025  •  JTA

For over 75 years, the State of Israel has taken pride in protecting worldwide Jewry as well as its own citizens. The current surge in antisemitism, however, reveals a collapse in this dual promise and obligates Diaspora leaders to adopt a new assertiveness toward distracted decisionmakers in Jerusalem.

The Basic Law of the Jewish state establishes Diaspora wellbeing as a priority: "The State shall strive to secure the welfare of members of the Jewish People and of its citizens who are in straits and in captivity due to their Jewishness or due to their citizenship." Additionally, the law promises "to preserve the cultural, historical, and religious heritage of the Jewish People among Jews of the diaspora."

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review of It Started in Damascus: How the Long Syrian Revolution Reshaped Our World

by Daniel Pipes  •  Fall 2025  •  Middle East Quarterly

Ignore the overblown title and the publisher's rush to get this book out quickly following Syria's December 2024 revolution; its charm and power lie in the evocation of nearly 55 years of life under the Assads, father and son, 1970-2024. Although a Syrian herself and knowledgeable of the country from the inside, the author's sensibilities are those of a liberal Westerner. (English is her first language.) Calling herself "a Syrian-born writer, a policy and diplomacy adviser, and a communications strategist," she manages to capture the ironic, futile, brutal, and nonsensical nature of the Assad era better than anyone else I have read.

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Harvard 55th Alumni Comments

by Daniel Pipes  •  September 4, 2025

The five years under review, covering my ages 70-75, have been good ones.

Semi-retirement means I get to do the work I enjoy (writing primarily) while avoiding the chores that burdened me down (administration, fundraising, etc.) for many decades. The career has been established, the money made, the children have become interesting and independent. While the body creaks some, it functions well enough to do all I want. The mind gets a bit forgetful but I churned out a new book (Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated) and plenty of articles and interviews. One article, published on the day of my 75^th birthday, "At 75, Staying Healthy Is My New Career," outlines my current focus. That new career? "extending my health-span."

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How Israel Became a "Leper State" – and How It Can Redeem Itself

by Daniel Pipes  •  August 16, 2025  •  Australian

Israel's former prime minister Naftali Bennett rightly concludes that events in Gaza have turned his country into a "leper state." This brutal assessment comes only weeks after Israel had earned international admiration for its extraordinary campaign to downgrade Iran's military capabilities.

What caused so rapid a collapse in its standing? It resulted from the Government of Israel ignoring two key facts. The hour is late, but if it takes them into account and recalibrates, its rehabilitation can begin.

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Mamet Misconstrues Military Slavery History
Letter to the Editor

by Daniel Pipes  •  August 11, 2025  •  Wall Street Journal

To the Editor:

David Mamet's op-ed "Sorry, Billionaires—There's No Escape" (Aug. 7) establishes that, come the apocalypse, no amount of money will help the ultrarich reach safety because their aides will revolt and take over.

To emphasize his point, Mr. Mamet includes a colorful sentence about historic Middle Eastern military slavery: "The Ottoman Turks raised enslaved Mamelukes to the status first of guards and then of administrators, and all was well until the 'Lukes did the math and realized they didn't need the Turks."

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The Momentous Turkish vs. Israeli Battle over Syria

by Daniel Pipes  •  July 22, 2025  •  MEF Observer

How to understand the fighting in Syria between the central government in Damascus and its many foes, including Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and the Israel Defense Forces?

During its first quarter-century of independence, 1946-70, a weak Syrian state served as the battlefield for its many stronger neighbors to project their ambitions, a predicament summed up in the title of a well-known book, The Struggle for Syria. That struggle disappeared through the four decades of rule by Hafez and his son Bashar al-Assad only to reemerge during the civil war of 2011-24 and then reach new heights after the overthrow of Bashar in December 2024.

His overthrow nearly eliminated Iran as a factor in Syria, leaving Türkiye and Israel as the primary external combatants. While Syrians are the main protagonists, they effectively serve as proxies for the governments of those two most powerful neighbors.

Each of Türkiye and Israel faces three major risks in Syria.

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What Just Happened?
A Twelve-Day War's Twelve Surprises

by Daniel Pipes  •  June 28, 2025  •  Australian

For those who follow international politics, the days following Israel's June 13 attack on Iran meant an addictive check of the smartphone every few hours to learn the latest twist. From that avalanche of surprises, twelve stand out, one marking each day of the Twelve-Day War. A question about the future follows each historical snippet.

For starters, the American side:

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Is it true that Israel 'stole Palestine'? No, it is false
Attempts to undermine Israel's legitimacy with claims of land theft' are ironic ... and wrong

by Daniel Pipes  •  June 14, 2025  •  Australian

How best to undermine Israel's legitimacy as a country? Simple, argue that it came into existence through "the theft of Palestine" and the expulsion of its people.

Thus does a learned book carry the title The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine and the Palestinian Authority (PA) holds that "Zionist gangs stole Palestine and expelled its people," then "established their state upon the ruins of the Palestinian Arab people." In all, this caused a catastrophe "unprecedented in history," no less.

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Trump's Travel Ban Protects Jews
The Boulder attack is part of a long history of antisemitic violence by immigrant Muslims

by Daniel Pipes  •  June 9, 2025  •  Wall Street Journal

It's no coincidence that President Trump's decision fully to restrict the entry of nationals from 12 countries, including six Muslim-majority ones, and review the screening practices of Egypt, immediately followed the June 1 antisemitic attack in Boulder, Colo.

That day Mohamed Sabry Soliman—a migrant from Egypt who overstayed his visa—taped himself telling his family "Jihad for God's sake is more beloved to me than you," as translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute. Mr. Solimon packed a Quran and 18 Molotov cocktails into his car, then threw incendiaries at people marching for the hostages in Gaza, injuring 15.

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Updates on the Persecution of Alawites

by Daniel Pipes  •  June 4, 2025

My article "'Are you Alawite?': A Call to Prevent Genocide in Syria" covers the experience of Alawites under the Sunni regime that came to power in December 2024 through May 2025. This blog continues coverage of that topic.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, members of security checkpoint for sectarian reasons executed eight civilians and injured five others — all Alawite, traveling in bus in the Hama countryside. (June 4, 2025)

June 5, 2025 update: A BBC podcast, "The Future of the Alawites," contains much interesting information, especially on the Alawite practice of taqiya, or religious dissimulation. The interviewer quotes "a local Alawite cleric" named Ali Asi:

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"Are you Alawite?"
A Call to Prevent Genocide in Syria

by Daniel Pipes  •  Summer 2025  •  Middle East Quarterly

No one knows how many unarmed Alawites were killed in Syria between March 6 and 10, 2025, but Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma estimates more than three thousand. While Alawites constitute but a small religious community, perhaps 10 percent of Syria's 15 million resident population, they suffer from a position of unique prominence and vulnerability.

In brief, throughout the centuries, the Alawites stood out as Syria's most isolated, impoverished, despised, and oppressed ethnicity. Only when generals from their community seized power in Damascus in 1966 did the power balance change in their favor. But the Alawites' ruthless domination of Syria for the next 58 years caused the country's majority Sunni Muslim population to rebel, leading to a full-scale civil war that began in 2011 and ended in December 2024, when Sunnis overthrew Alawite rule and returned to power. Recent events point to an ominous Sunni desire for retribution.

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Anti-Hamas Protests by Gazans Persist

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 7, 2025

I published an article on April 4, "Gazans, 'The Bravest People on Earth,' Confront Hamas" about the activities that peaked in late March. The protests continue but the media tends to ignore them, so X provides much of the information. Here are some captions of recent videos:

Ariel Oseran: "Thousands of Gazans are out in the streets of Jabalia, Northern Gaza, in renewed anti-Hamas protests. Crowds are chanting, 'Hamas are scum, Hamas are terrorists!'"

Jews Fight Back:

In Jabalia, Gazans are flooding the streets chanting:

"No siege and no destruction — we want to live with dignity and stability."
"Spread the message: Hamas is garbage."
"Hamas is a terrorist organization."
"Osama Hamdan is a spy."
"Sami Abu Zuhri is a collaborator."

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Gazans, 'The Bravest People on Earth,' Confront Hamas

by Daniel Pipes  •  April 5, 2025  •  Australian

Events

Starting on March 25, crowds of overwhelmingly young male Gazans have marched by the thousands through streets flanked by destroyed buildings, bellowing out slogans and carrying signs. Proceeding peacefully with uncovered faces in broad daylight, speaking angrily into close-up video cameras, they assail not Israel but Hamas, their jihadist overlords. If Jerusalem pays them attention, their protest could mark a positive turning point in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

This spontaneous, unforeseen event began with mourners at a funeral in the Beit Lahiya district of the Gaza Strip, then spread. Their slogans including the following, which I personally witnessed in videos:

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